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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2016-07-17T12:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2016-07-17T12:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/10999/-1
CME Note: Slow dimming and field line evolution visible in AIA images from 06:30-08:30. Note: the arrival listed here may not be due to this CME, but no other ICME could be found.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2016-07-19T23:05Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2016-07-20T22:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2016-07-17T20:34Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 497
Longitude (deg): E036
Latitude (deg): S08
Half-angular width (deg): 36

Notes: Low confidence due to difficult analysis
Space weather advisor: Mark Seltzer

Lead Time: 54.08 hour(s)
Difference: -22.92 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2016-07-17T17:00Z

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